The Federal Reserve and the US government together have injected more than $6 trillion into the economy. The US government's spending directly puts money in the hands of its citizens either by creating government jobs, or by sending out paychecks…
Tag: Federal Reserve
Goodbye To The Volcker Rule
Paul Volcker was the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. A period when United States experienced stagflation i.e. an environment where a region has high inflation coupled with high unemployment. Unlike the present situation (2020 - when…
The Federal Reserve Kicks The Can Down The Road
The US Stock market has been all over the place. Mr. Market becomes euphoric when any bad news is released, which isn't "that bad". Needless to say, the euphoria continues when there is any good news. With Federal Reserve's "whatever…
If Something Cannot Go On Forever, It Will Stop.
The US Economy is in uncharted territory. All non-essential businesses have shut down to curtail the spread of virus, the Federal Reserve is flooding the market with cash by buying just about anything it can get its hands on, the…
Where Is The US Economy Headed?
On April 9, 2020, the Department of Labor released new unemployment insurance weekly claims for the previous week to be 6.6 million. More than 16 million people have lost their jobs so far, and if we compare this to the…
Is High Inflation Around The Corner?
As coronavirus outbreak has locked down many cities and states in the United States, unemployment is on a rise. According to the Department of Labor's news release on March 26, 2020, the seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 3,283,000, an…
Is A Global Recession Inevitable?
The stock market has been very volatile this past week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 10% on Thursday (3/12/2020) due to fears of coronavirus. This was the largest one day drop in US stock market since Black Monday of…
Is Coronavirus The Black Swan For The Stock Market?
Economy is like a machine, which has multiple interlocked gears that need to function in harmony. As Ray Dalio explains in How the Economic Machine Works, anytime there is a problem in one gear, the other gears will be affected…
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Why Is The Federal Reserve Not Ready For The Next Recession?
The Federal Reserve plays a key role in jump starting the economy during a downturn. As outlined on the Federal Reserve website, the Congress has directed the Fed to conduct the nation's monetary policy to support three specific goals: maximum…
Read More Why Is The Federal Reserve Not Ready For The Next Recession?
The World Of Negative Interest Rates
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on July 31, 2019. This was the first rate cut since the 2007-08 financial crisis. In the latter part of 2019, with inflation at bay, the Federal Reserve has changed its stance from…
Repo Rate Spikes, And The Fed Starts Buying T-Bills. What Does That Mean?
The US Federal Reserve announced on Friday, October 11, 2019, that it will buy $60 billion of treasury bills (T-Bills) each month to build its reserve. Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, said that this decision was made to address…
Read More Repo Rate Spikes, And The Fed Starts Buying T-Bills. What Does That Mean?
US Economy, Federal Reserve, And Interest Rates
On September 18, 2019, the Federal Reserve decided to cut the interest rate by 0.25%. This has been the second rate cut of the year. Let me illustrate what is going on with an analogy. You can think of this…
Trade War, Federal Reserve, China, Interest Rates, Currencies, And More
There has been a lot of action in the stock and the bond market recently. In this week's blog post, I will talk about my take on the current events. Let me briefly go over these current events: United States…
Read More Trade War, Federal Reserve, China, Interest Rates, Currencies, And More
Tariffs on China Equate to Stagflation in the United States?
This past week, the US Stock market was highly volatile. The markets had big fluctuations because of the trade tension between the United States and China. On May 10, 2019, President Trump tweeted that the United States has started levying…
Read More Tariffs on China Equate to Stagflation in the United States?
Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government – Book of the Month
I recently listened to "Keeping at It", which is an autobiography of Paul Volcker. Paul Volcker has served under multiple US Presidents, however his most important role was as the Federal Reserve Chairman under President Jimmy Carter and President Ronald…
Read More Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government – Book of the Month
Interest Rates and Inflation
The Federal Reserve, who has been hiking interest rates, has been in the news recently. In this blog post, I will talk about the relationship between interest rates and inflation. Inflation is the increase in prices and the fall in…
Interest Rates and the Recent Market Conditions
In second half of December 2018, the stock market experienced lots of uncertainty. With the market being up one day and down the next, speculators do not know how to position themselves. It looks like volatility is back and it…
How Far is The Next Downturn?
It is said that history repeats itself. So, why don't we use historic data to figure out where we might be headed? Are we due for a recession? What does your gut say? Let's see if you are right. For…
Health of the US Economy
With the recent decline in the US stock market, I decided to do some research to figure out the health of the US Economy. Using the 4 indicators that I mention below, we can gauge how well the US Economy…
Is Carry Trade Profitable?
Imagine getting paid interest everyday for holding onto a trade. You don't need to be actively trading or constantly looking at the market - all you need to do is HOLD! When I was learning to trade Foreign Exchange, I…
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